Growth and Obsolescence of Literature in Virology Research
Keywords:
Exponential model, Growth dynamics study, Linear model, Obsolescence of literature, Scientometrics, Virology researchAbstract
The present study has tried to identify the growth and obsolescence of virology research at the global and Indian levels from the period 1990 to 2019. The data have been collected from Scopus bibliographic database. The highest India's share in virology research came in the year 2019. It is observed that the mean relative growth rate for Indian virology research during 1990-2019 was 0.57, 0.16, and 0.17 respectively. The corresponding mean doubling time for the same period was 2, 4.5, and 4.45 respectively. The rate of doubling time (DT) slows as the number of
publications rises over time (a year), as a consequence, when publications increase, RGR declines, and DT rises. The mean figures of relative growth rate and doubling time for global virology research output are 0.47, 0.14, and 0.13 (RGR) and 1.89, 5.1, and 5.84 (DT)
respectively. The literature on virology best fits into the exponential growth model. The number of citations decreased with an increase in age, except in some years, the citations increased by a small margin. The annual aging factor (AAF) of the virology literature is 0.986, half-life = 14
years, mean life = 70.93 and utility factor = 71.43. The growth study will help to monitor the number of new yearly publications in the field of virology. Knowing in advance which areas of virology are likely to increase more than others may be helpful for research funders, academics, students, established researchers, and policy officials. After De Solla Price's 1963 publication of his masterpiece Little science, Big science, this type of study would take on a special relevance.